Diabetes risk among first-degree relatives of patients with type 2 diabetes in Isfahan, Iran
Mohsen Janghorbani1 and Masoud Amini2
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, and 2Isfahan Endocrine and Metabolism Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

Background and aims: The aims of this study were to estimate the incidence of and risk factors for diabetes among the first-degree relatives (FDR) of patients with type 2 diabetes in Isfahan, Iran. Methods: A total of 706 non-diabetics FDR aged 20-70 years in 2003 to 2005 were followed through 2007 for the occurrence of type 2 diabetes. Diagnosis of diabetes was ascertained by standard 75 g 2-h oral glucose tolerance test. Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and type 2 diabetes were diagnosed according to the criteria of the American Diabetes Association. Results: During 1630 person/years of follow-up, 12 men and 62 women developed diabetes. The incidence of type 2 diabetes was 3.4 per 100 person/year in men and 4.9 in women. The incidence rates were 0.5, 5.1, and 10.0 per 100 person/year in FDR with normal glucose tolerance, IFG, and IGT, respectively. The multivariate relative risk (RR) of incident diabetes in FDR with IGT compared with normal glucose tolerance was 1.66 (95% CI 1.41, 1.95). IFG was not independently associated with progression to diabetes (RR 1.07; 95% CI 0.78, 1.47). Conclusions: The risk of type 2 diabetes in this population of FDR is high, and indicates that impaired glucose tolerance can independently predict the future development of the disease.

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